The trump administrations onesided approach to the regionwhich appears to buy into this simplistic, good versus evil narrativewill do. It argues instead that the best framework for considering regional dynamics is as a cold war in which iran and saudi arabia play leading roles. Hezbollah, together with syria, form the core of the coalition bloc led by iran. Gregory gause skip to main content accessibility help we use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. For years, iraq balanced against iranian power in ways ranging from political competition to the massively destructive eightyear war in the 1980s. There is a cold war in the middle east being fought between saudi arabia and iran. Syrias war is a proxy battle in the rebalancing of the saudis against iran and the americans and israelis against the axis of resistance. The turkey of the 2000s por trayed an effective model of democracy, mod erate islamist politics, and economic success to a region that lacked all three. In such an impossibly fluid situation, the initial response of president barack obama and his administration was, understandably, to pursue crisis management narrowly defining u. The new middle east cold war, aims to demonstrate the complexities of this conflict that go beyond a simple divide between sunni and shia muslims. Iraq, the soviet union and the united states, 194590 the effects of the cold war overview 41 41 43 46 47 50 54 ii this chapter attempts to examine the effects of the cold war upon the states of the middle east. Iraq, the soviet union and the united states, 194590 the effects of the cold war overview 41 41 43 46 47 50 54 ii this chapter attempts to examine the.
The article tries to integrate sectarianism into a broader explanatory framework beyond a simplistic sunni vs. The sectarianism that emerged during the war not only impacted the battlefield, but also evolved into the entrenched iransaudi arabia regional power struggle. Incompatible interests between the united states us and russia, short of open conflict, increased after the collapse of the former soviet union. This cold war is beyond sectarianism and the sunnishia divide. The saudiiranian rivalry has important implications for regional stability and u. Iran is the undoubted winner in regionalpower terms in the past decade of middle eastern upheaval. Why saudi arabia escalated the middle easts sectarian con. Religion or politics an analysis of sectarian relations. The new cold war in the middle east the national interest. Comparatively, iran was at a much different stance just a few weeks into the new year.
Reset, negotiate, institutionalize center for a new. These two main actors are not confronting each other militarily. A new regional cold war in the middle east and north. The new middle east cold war, brookings doha center analysis paper, no. Rather than stemming from sectarian rivalry, this new middle east cold war results from the weakening. Brookings doha center, beyond sectarianism, seeks to demonstrate that current conflicts in the middle east cannot be accurately understood as arising from sectarian division between sunni and shia muslims. Western states and regional countries opposed to president assads rule failed to manage the formation of an organized and representative political and military.
The new middle east cold war and its affiliates, the emergent islamic state, and other sunni groups are locked in a conflict over what the proper political role of islam should be in the sunni world. The latest report from the brookings doha center, beyond sectarianism, seeks to demonstrate that current conflicts in the middle east cannot be accurately understood as arising from sectarian division between sunni and shia muslims. Dec 28, 2019 tillys injunction that war made the state and the state made war is certainty correct for the middle east, but defeat in war became more influential than victory tilly, 1992. A new middle east does exist in places, but there is still an old middle east of tradition. Particular attention is paid to how conflicts over distribution of political and economic power have taken on a sectarian quality, and how a variety of actors have instrumentalised sectarianism.
The gaps between them have been filled with dictatorship, xenophobia, and fundamental ism. This article evaluates the emergence of the new cold war using the syrian and ukraine conflicts, among others. Gregory gause, iii frames middle east politics in terms of a new, regional cold war in which iran and saudi arabia compete for power and influence. Ideologies, alignments, and underbalancing in the new. Gregory gause, iii executive summary the best framework for understanding the regional politics of the middle east is as a cold war in which iran and saudi arabia play the leading roles.
Committee inquiry into the uk relations with the middle east during the 201617 academic year, whilst consulting for a range of government agencies and ngos. These regional tensions are referred to as a cold war in the report because the main protagonists are not and most probably never will be confronting each. The idea of a new cold war between iran and saudi arabia is a passable metaphor for todays middle east, but a poor way to actually understand the causes and impact of todays regional tensions. The iransaudi arabia proxy conflict, sometimes also referred to as the iransaudi arabia cold war, middle east cold war or middle east conflict, is the ongoing struggle for influence in the middle east and surrounding regions between the islamic republic of iran and the kingdom of saudi arabia. Dec 28, 2019 in his study of the new middle east cold war, gause takes his point of departure in an instrumentalist attentiveness to how foreign policy elites use the sectarian card for reasons of security, geopolitics and power. Mar 29, 2014 sectarian and religious conflicts in the middle east. On october 21, 2014, the brookings doha center bdc hosted a panel discussion on forces driving current regional turmoil, and whether the current string of conflicts constituted a new middle east. However, he combines this with insights from institutionalism in order to explain why proxy wars between regional. Gregory gause, iii frames middle east politics in terms of a new, regional cold war in which iran and saudi arabia. The cold war that gause posits is between saudi arabia and iranthe former sunni and the. The immediate origins of the cold war oil in the middle east a c1ash of ideologies elements of a case study. The nature of the saudiiranian rivalry has led many middle east experts to identify their rivalry as a new middle east cold war. Late last month he published a paper called beyond sectarianism.
The middle east, old and new in 1902, theodor herzl, the father of political zionism, pub. Sectarianism as a factor shaping persian gulf security. The new middle east cold war goes beyond the arab world. Ideologies, alignments, and underbalancing in the new middle east cold war volume 50 issue 3 f. The new middle east cold war and its affiliates, the emergent islamic state, and other sunni groups are locked in a conflict over. The iraniraq war and sectarianism in the middle east. The new middle east cold war the syrian uprising has changed significantly since the first signs of localized armed resistance began emerging in late april 2011. Dec 09, 2014 there is a cold war in the middle east being fought between saudi arabia and iran. During the 1960s, in the wake of a coup against imam muhammad albadr and the formation of the yemen arab republic yar, yemen was transformed into an arena of global conflict. Since the start of the arab revolutions five years ago, the middle east has experienced unprecedented instability. In the early years of the 21st century, iran enjoyed remarkable popularity in the arab world and was on the geopolitical ascendancy. Tillys injunction that war made the state and the state made war is certainty correct for the middle east, but defeat in war became more influential than victory tilly, 1992.
Similarly, hutchinsons study of the role of war in nationalism is right to stress the ambiguous role that it has played in state and nation building. Beyond the arab cold war brings the yemen civil war, 196268, to the forefront of modern middle east history. These regional tensions are referred to as a cold war in the report because the main protagonists are not and most probably never will be confronting each other militarily, but rather through proxy groups and conflicts. In the first chapter, i will quickly survey the origins of sectarianism and offer a counterargument to the claims of a 1,400 year war between sunnis and shias. Sinc e the 2003 iraq war, the middle east and north africa has entered into a new regional cold war, characterised by two competing logics. Gregory gause, iii frames middle east politics in terms of a new, regional cold war in which iran and saudi arabia compete.
Two wars on its borders removed detested regimes from power. Apr 14, 2017 late last month he published a paper called beyond sectarianism. The volume, covering syria, iraq, lebanon, saudi arabia and the gulf, iran, and egypt, includes contributors from a broad array of disciplines. Ideologies, alignments, and underbalancing in the new middle. The new middle east cold war b r ook i ngs d oha c e nt e r, no. Navigating beyond primordial and instrumental theoretical explanations, beyond sunni and shia offers a multilayered analysis of why sectarianism assumes today such a powerful role in the domestic politics and foreign policies of middle east states and transnational movements, and what are the prospects of moving beyond sectarianism in the. Aug 07, 2019 confident and wealthy, the kingdom had reached a new status level in the middle east. The arab spring and sectarianism in the middle east the arab disorders has brought the situation in the middle east into a new stage, called by some researches the new new middle east97 or the third arab cold war hinnebusch 2016. This rivalry continues to fuel sectarianism across the region, worsening the conflicts in syria, iraq, and yemen and upending the lives of millions as a result. Despite the perceived importance of sectarianism in the conflict, describing its source as a fundamental sunni shia divide is an. Jonathan paris is a londonbased middle east analyst and nonresident senior fellow at the atlantic council.
The arabiranian conflict or the arabpersian conflict is a term which is used in reference to the modern conflict between arab league countries and iran and in a broader sense, the term is also used in reference to the ethnic tensions which exist between arabs and persians as well as the historic conflict between shia and sunni muslims, in which postrevolutionary iran sees itself as the. The new middle east cold war and its affiliates, the emergent islamic state, and other sunni groups are locked in a conflict over what the proper political role of islam should. Sectarian and religious conflicts in the middle east. Following the sacking of a saudi embassy in iran, saudi arabia has. Power and rivalry in the middle east and is project director for the sectarianism, proxies and desectarianisation sepad project. The best framework for understanding the regional politics of the middle east is as a cold war in which iran and saudi arabia play the leading roles.
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